Population Impact Assessment Seminar

By Peter Bellmio

This one day seminar is designed to assist police planners to analyze the impact on workload of shifts in population in a community caused by immigration, population growth, re-distribution of population through development, annexation or other changes in community characteristics that will shift demographics and manifest themselves in changes in workload.  The seminar will define data that can be used to measure population shifts and sources of information that can be used for analysis of trends. That information can then be used to forecast crime and calls for service. Examples of applications of this information will be discussed. The following is a list of topics to be covered. More topics may be added by conference time.          

1. Reasons for population change
   1. Land development
   2. Immigration
   3. Migration
   4. Annexation

2. Sources of information
   1. Census
   2. Utilities
   3. Housing
   4. Schools
   5. Community development

3. Estimating population shifts
   1. Occupied housing units
   2. Households
   3. Household size

4. Projecting call for service workload
   1. Defining CFS
   2. Establishing reporting areas
   3. Analyzing trends over time

5. Projecting reported crime
   1. Using UCR Data
   2. Using NIBRS Data
   3. Analyzing trends over time

6. Application of Population Impact Assessment Data
   1. Staffing
   2. Geographic deployment
   3. Service levels